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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."